Stylized Facts

about former Yugoslav republics economies

Household savings Monetary Sector

Serbian monthly household savings time series plots (2)

In this blog post graphic methods are used to describe composition of the Serbian monthly household savings time series.

Two types of a line graph could be used to show changes in monthly household savings over time. The first displays both time series on a single graph. The second type of graph displays each series on a separate panel. On such graphs any persistent pattern related to trend or seasonal factors should be clearly visible.

Figure 1 shows line graphs of monthly dinar and FX-indexed savings time series on the same panel grouped by the term (short and long).

Figure 1. Serbian monthly dinar and FX-indexed household savings series (by terms)

In the previous post we have commented about rapidly increasing trend in the dinar and FX-indexed short-term savings and to less extent in the foreign currency short-term savings. Now we can see who made a major contribution to such increasing trend. In case of short-term savings demand deposit and up to one year savings have such increasing trend while remaining short-term savings are varying around some constant level and even show negative trend in the last 4-5 years. Such trends in all short-term series could be interpreted as an increasing trust of population in measures of economic and monetary policies.

In case of long-term dinar savings in the last 3-4 years an increasing trend could be observed in both up to 5 years and over 5 years dinar savings, while up to 2 years dinar savings shows sharply fall from its peak in 2016. Up to 5 years dinar savings dominates long-term dinar savings in the last two years. Overall, as a result we have an increasing trend in long-term dinar savings as commented in the previous post.

Figure 2 shows line graphs of monthly foreign currency savings time series on the same panel grouped by the term (short and long).

The demand deposit is the only foreign currency savings showing an increasing trend, while the rest of the short-term foreign currency savings time series in the last 6-7 years show negative trend.

There is no clear tendency in the long-term foreign currency savings, though in the last two years all three long-term time series show variations around some constant level.

Figure 2. Serbian monthly foreign currency household savings series (by terms)

Figure 3 shows of monthly short-term dinar and FX-indexed savings time series on separate panels. With exception of the demand deposit and up to 1 year savings time series short-term time series show quite a lot variation around negative trend in the last 5-6 years. The up to 6 months savings time series shows an increasing trend in the last 5-6 years. It looks like that there is a significant seasonal component in the up to 1 month savings time series, particularly after 2013.

Figure 3. Serbian monthly short-term dinar and FX-indexed
household savings series (separate panels)

Figure 4 shows of monthly long-term dinar and FX-indexed savings time series on separate panels. Since 2016 both up to 5 and over 5 years savings time series show an increasing trend with some variation. In the same period the up to 2 years savings time series is showing a negative trend.

Figure 4. Serbian monthly long-term dinar and FX-indexed
household savings series (separate panels)

Figure 5 shows of monthly short-term foreign currency savings time series on separate panels. With exception of the demand deposit where the positive trend could be observed, the remaining short-term savings time series show quite a lot variation around negative trend since 2013. At the beginning of period until 2013 it looks like that there is a significant seasonal component in the up to 1, 3 and 6 months savings time series.

Figure 5. Serbian monthly short-term foreign currency household
savings series (separate panels)

Figure 6 shows of monthly long-term foreign currency savings time series on separate panels. Since 2017 all long-term foreign currency savings time series are varying around some constant level. Before that none of the series shows

Figure 6. Serbian monthly long-term foreign currency household
savings series (separate panels)

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Zlatko Kovacic
Director of Wellington based My Statistical Consultant Ltd company. Retired Associate Professor in Statistics. Has a PhD in Statistics and over 35 years experience as a university professor, international researcher and government consultant.