This is the first in a series of blog posts analysing and discussing Serbian monthly dinar exchange rates against the foreign currencies time series.
The aims of these blog posts are the following:
- To describe main features of monthly exchange rates time series
- To model series using popular time series models
- To forecast future exchange rates
- To compare forecasting performance of different time series models
The dataset under examination comes from the National Bank of Serbia databases. They show dinar exchange rates against the foreign currencies at the end of period (http://nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/SBEOI09.xls), period average and effective exchange rates (http://nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/ino_ekonomski_odnosi/SBEOI11.xls). All 14 time series cover period 2002M1 to 2019M5.
Column name in csv file uses the following format for the first six series (dinar exchange rates against the foreign currencies – end of period): ECCC, where CCC is the acronym for the currency (EUR, USD, CHF, GBP, SEK and JPY). The next six series (dinar exchange rates against the foreign currencies – period average) column name has acronym ACCC, where CCC is the same above acronym for currency. The last two columns are effective exchange rates (NEER – nominal and REER – real with the base 2005=100). Period covered in the csv file: 2002M1 to 2019M5.
Those familiar with R could download and use RData file. This file contains time series in different formats, but the time series used directly in the next blog posts have the following names: end.exchange,dend.exchange, eer and deer. These are multivariate time series objects containing dinar exchange rates against the foreign currencies – end of period, their first differences, effective exchange rates (nominal and real) and their differences respectively. This RData file contains also a few other time series objects in different format (a, b, exchange.zoo, exchange.ts, avg.exchange, davg.exchange, EUR, USD, CHF, GBP, SEK, JPY).
In the next blog post line graphs for each currency monthly dinar exchange rates will be presented and discussed.