Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Bosnia and Herzegovina’s business cycle Part 3 shifts from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying the business cycle….

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 moves from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that the GDP series…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. From Post-War Recovery to Mature Expansion Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product…

Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Serbia’s GDP Cycle with Other Former Yugoslav Economies 4.1 Synchronisation in the cycle graphs Part 4 asks whether…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Serbia’s Business Cycle 3.1 Why cycle dating matters Part 3 moves from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. Serbia’s GDP as a Quarterly Time Series 1.1 Introduction Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of…

Reading Time: 6 minutesKvartalni podaci potvrđuju kanal. Ali insistiraju na prekidima, kašnjenjima i skromnosti. 1. Glavni zaključak: Hrvatska ima Okunovu vezu, ali nema…

Reading Time: 8 minutesQuarterly data confirm the channel. They also insist on breaks, lags, and humility. 1. The big takeaway: Croatia has an…

Reading Time: 10 minutesJedinični koreni, prekidi, kointegracija, asimetrija i uzročnost: Hrvatski kvartalni podaci daju iskaz, ne priznanje. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto…

Reading Time: 13 minutesUnit roots, breaks, cointegration, asymmetry and causality, Croatia’s quarterly data give testimony, not a confession. 1. From pictures to proof:…