Part 4. Does Serbia’s GDP Move with the Region?
Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Serbia’s GDP Cycle with Other Former Yugoslav Economies 4.1 Synchronisation in the cycle graphs Part 4 asks whether…
Part 3. When Was Serbia Above or Below Trend?
Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Serbia’s Business Cycle 3.1 Why cycle dating matters Part 3 moves from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying…
Serbia’s GDP in the Long Cycle: Trends, Forecasts and Regional Synchronisation, 1995–2026
Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. Serbia’s GDP as a Quarterly Time Series 1.1 Introduction Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of…
Hrvatska Okunova presuda, posle evra: Zakon koji radi, ali uz fusnote – Deo III
Reading Time: 6 minutesKvartalni podaci potvrđuju kanal. Ali insistiraju na prekidima, kašnjenjima i skromnosti. 1. Glavni zaključak: Hrvatska ima Okunovu vezu, ali nema…
Croatia’s Okun verdict, post-euro: A law that works, with footnotes – Part III
Reading Time: 8 minutesQuarterly data confirm the channel. They also insist on breaks, lags, and humility. 1. The big takeaway: Croatia has an…
Hrvatski Okunov zakon ide na sud – Deo II
Reading Time: 10 minutesJedinični koreni, prekidi, kointegracija, asimetrija i uzročnost: Hrvatski kvartalni podaci daju iskaz, ne priznanje. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto…
Croatia’s Okun Law goes to court – Part II
Reading Time: 13 minutesUnit roots, breaks, cointegration, asymmetry and causality, Croatia’s quarterly data give testimony, not a confession. 1. From pictures to proof:…
Zagrebačka Okunova zagonetka: Kada se rast vrati, a poslovi ne prate uvek – Deo I
Reading Time: 9 minutesGrafikoni nagoveštavaju vezu, a onda se tiho posvađaju oko podešavanja vremena i jačine. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto testiramo stacionarnost,…
Zagreb’s Okun riddle: When growth returns but jobs don’t always follow – Part I
Reading Time: 10 minutesThe charts hint at a relationship, then quietly argue about timing and strength. The methodology behind this exercise, why we…
Construction in Serbia, 2000Q1–2024Q4: Part 2 — Dependence, forecasting, and synchronization with GDP
Reading Time: 9 minutes1. Part 2 introduction Part 1 established the structural anatomy of the series: a strong trend plus durable seasonality. Part…