Stylized Facts

about former Yugoslav republics economies

Real Sector Unemployment

Serbian unemployment time series

This is the first in a series of blog posts analysing and discussing Serbian monthly unemployment time series.

Aims

The aims of these blog posts are the following:

  • To describe main features of monthly unemployment time series
  • To model series using popular time series models
  • To forecast future unemployment time series values
  • To compare forecasting performance of different time series models

Dataset

The dataset under examination comes from the National Bank of Serbia database (http://nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/realni_sektor/SBRS05.xls). It shows two monthly number of employed and unemployed persons. The first series covers period 2014M12 to 2018M7 and the second series: 2005M1 to 2018M8.

Dataset description

Dataset is available for download in two formats: csv and RData.

Column names in csv file are: Empnum (number of employed persons) and Unenum (number of unemployed persons). Those familiar with R could download and use RData file. This file contains time series in different formats, but the time series used directly in the next blog posts are in the multivariate time series object Bts.name containing two above listed time series. This RData file contains also a few other time series objects in different format (a, Ats, Azoo, Azoo.name and Bts). In the next blog post line graphs for each monthly unemployment time series will be presented and discussed.

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Zlatko Kovacic
Director of Wellington based My Statistical Consultant Ltd company. Retired Associate Professor in Statistics. Has a PhD in Statistics and over 35 years experience as a university professor, international researcher and government consultant.