Reading Time: 7 minutesA law of motion, if you respect breaks, slack, and the limits of prediction. 1. Croatia’s Okun story in one sentence, and the caveats hidden inside it The report’s bottom line is deceptively simple: in Croatia’s annual data, output movements matter for unemployment, and the…

Reading Time: 8 minutesStacionarnost, lomovi, kointegracija, dinamika, uzročnost, koraci koji sprečavaju da sami sebe prevarite. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto testovi dolaze sledeći Kada grafikoni obave svoj posao, označe očigledna zajednička kretanja, dramatične veštačke promenljive (posebno 2009. i 2020.) i sumnju da je „jedan nagib” previše jednostavno,…

Reading Time: 9 minutesStationarity, breaks, cointegration, dynamics, causality, the steps that stop you from fooling yourself. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the tests come next Once the charts have done their job, flagging the obvious co-movements, the dramatic outliers (especially 2009 and 2020), and the suspicion that…

Reading Time: 9 minutesGrafikoni nagoveštavaju odnos, pa onda tiho počnu da se raspravljaju oko vremenskog usklađivanja i jačine. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ovde počinjemo kao što počinju većina čitalaca (i mnogi kreatori politike): od…

Reading Time: 10 minutesThe charts hint at a relationship, then quietly argue about timing and strength. The methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. Here we begin as most readers (and many policymakers)…

Reading Time: 6 minutesDokazi nisu nihilistički, ali jesu uslovni, a politika mora da živi s tim. 1. Šta dokazi za Srbiju kažu o Okunovom zakonu, i šta odbijaju da kažu Kada spojite tri nastavka, priča za Srbiju postaje jasnija, i manje utešna. Grafikoni iz Dela I pokazuju ekonomiju…

Reading Time: 7 minutesThe evidence is not nihilistic, but it is conditional, and policy has to live with that. 1. What Serbia’s evidence says about Okun, and what it refuses to say Put the three instalments together and the Serbia story becomes clearer, and less comforting. The charts…

Reading Time: 5 minutesOd „da li su ovi podaci uopšte upotrebljivi?” do „da li rast vodi poslove?”, korak po korak. 1. Od grafika ka proverama: Kad intuicija prestaje da bude dovoljna Grafički uvid je koristan prvi prolaz, ali može biti i zamka: novija ekonomska istorija Srbije puna je…

Reading Time: 7 minutesFrom “is this data even usable?” to “does growth lead jobs?”, one careful step at a time. 1. From charts to checks: when intuition stops being enough Graphical inspection is a useful first pass, but it can also be a trap: Serbia’s recent economic history…

Reading Time: 8 minutesPre testova, grafikoni već pričaju priču, samo ne urednu. Puna ekonometrska metodologija iza ove vežbe za Srbiju objašnjena je u posebnoj blog objavi. Ova epizoda namerno ostaje vizuelna i intuitivna: šta podaci izgledaju da govore pre nego što ih nateramo da polože formalne statističke ispite….