Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. Serbia’s GDP as a Quarterly Time Series 1.1 Introduction Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of macroeconomic activity. It measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore provides a compact summary of expansions, recessions, recoveries and…

Reading Time: 8 minutesHrvatska u evro eri je ujedinjena u novcu, i dalje podeljena u tome kako radna mesta reaguju na rast. 1. Jedan glavni grad, mnogo tržišta rada: Šta kažu županijski dokazi Iz daljine, Okunov zakon je umirujuća pravilnost: kad ekonomija „radi vruće“, nezaposlenost se „hladi“; kad…

Reading Time: 9 minutesEuro-era Croatia is united in money, and still divided in how jobs respond to growth. 1. One capital, many labour markets: What the county evidence says Zoomed out, Okun’s Law is a comforting regularity: when the economy runs hot, unemployment cools; when output contracts, joblessness…

Reading Time: 10 minutesKad se županije kreću zajedno, vaša ekonometrija to mora priznati. Kada to ne čine, ni vaši politički slogani ne bi trebalo. 1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto panel testovi dolaze sledeći Deo I je pustio županijske grafikone da progovore prvi. Učinili su ono što dobri…

Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen counties move together, your econometrics must admit it. When they don’t, your policy slogans shouldn’t either. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the panel tests come next Part I let the county charts speak first. They did what good charts usually do: they hinted…

Reading Time: 10 minutesKad zumirate od glavnog grada ka periferiji, „zakon“ se pretvara u mozaik kašnjenja, otpornosti i neiskorišćenosti kapaciteta. Metodološki radni tok iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, međuzavisnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjen je u posebnom blog postu. Ova serija o županijama ide u tri…

Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen you zoom in from the capital to the periphery, the “law” turns into a patchwork of lags, resilience, and slack. The methodology pipeline behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, dependence, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog…

Reading Time: 6 minutesKvartalni podaci potvrđuju kanal. Ali insistiraju na prekidima, kašnjenjima i skromnosti. 1. Glavni zaključak: Hrvatska ima Okunovu vezu, ali nema jedan „Okunov broj“ Ako ste došli po jedan oštar koeficijent koji pretvara BDP u poslove kao automat, ubaciš rast, dobiješ zaposlenost, bićete razočarani. Ako ste…

Reading Time: 8 minutesQuarterly data confirm the channel. They also insist on breaks, lags, and humility. 1. The big takeaway: Croatia has an Okun relationship, but not a single “Okun number” If you came here hoping for one crisp coefficient that turns GDP into jobs like a vending…

Reading Time: 10 minutesJedinični koreni, prekidi, kointegracija, asimetrija i uzročnost: Hrvatski kvartalni podaci daju iskaz, ne priznanje. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto kontrolna lista ima smisla Deo I je pustio grafikone da urade ono što najbolje rade: pokažu zajedničko kretanje, istaknu nezgodna kašnjenja i podsete nas da…