Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 moves from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that the GDP series is persistent, seasonal and non-stationary in levels, the natural next question is whether a statistical model can use that structure to forecast the near future….

Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. Od posleratnog oporavka do zrelije ekspanzije BDP Bosne i Hercegovine kao kvartalna vremenska serija Bruto domaći proizvod je najšira pojedinačna mera makroekonomske aktivnosti. On sažima vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje pregled dugoročnog oporavka, ekspanzije, recesije i ciklične…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. From Post-War Recovery to Mature Expansion Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product is the broadest single measure of macroeconomic activity. It summarises the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore gives a compact…

Reading Time: 5 minutesSinhronizacija ciklusa BDP-a Srbije sa ekonomijama bivše Jugoslavije 4.1 Sinhronizacija na grafikonima ciklusa Četvrti deo postavlja pitanje da li se ciklus BDP-a Srbije kreće zajedno sa ciklusima BDP-a Bosne i Hercegovine, Hrvatske, Crne Gore, Severne Makedonije i Slovenije. Sinhronizacija je važna zato što ekonomije koje…

Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Serbia’s GDP Cycle with Other Former Yugoslav Economies 4.1 Synchronisation in the cycle graphs Part 4 asks whether Serbia’s GDP cycle moves together with the GDP cycles of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Slovenia. Synchronisation matters because economies that share…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Srbije 3.1 Zašto je datiranje ciklusa važno Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja nivoa BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. Ekonomija može rasti u nivou, a ipak biti ispod trenda; isto tako može biti…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Serbia’s Business Cycle 3.1 Why cycle dating matters Part 3 moves from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying the business cycle. The business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. An economy can still be growing in level terms…

Reading Time: 3 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje 2.1 Od strukture vremenske serije ka prognozi Prvi deo je pokazao da BDP Srbije ima snažan trend, postojanost i sezonalnost. Drugi deo postavlja pitanje da li se ta struktura može dovoljno dobro obuhvatiti da bi se dobile korisne kratkoročne prognoze….

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA Estimation and Short-Term Forecasting 2.1 From time-series structure to forecasting Part 1 showed that Serbia’s GDP has strong trend, persistence and seasonality. Part 2 asks whether this structure can be captured well enough to produce useful short-term forecasts. The forecasting model used here is…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. BDP Srbije kao kvartalna vremenska serija 1.1 Uvod Bruto domaći proizvod je najširi pojedinačni pokazatelj makroekonomske aktivnosti. On meri vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje sažet prikaz ekspanzija, recesija, oporavaka i dugoročnih promena u proizvodnom kapacitetu. U ovoj…