Reading Time: 8 minutes1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto panel testovi dolaze sledeći U Delu I smo pustili grafikone da govore. Ovde ih teramo da polože zakletvu. Čim pređete sa jedne zemlje na panel od šest ekonomija, Bosne i Hercegovine, Hrvatske, Crne Gore, Severne Makedonije, Srbije i Slovenije, statistički život postaje i lakši…
When “the picture” isn’t enough: Okun’s Law goes to the panel court – Part II
Reading Time: 9 minutes1. From pictures to proof: why the panel tests come next In Part I we let the charts do the talking. Here, we make them swear an oath. Once you move from a single country to a panel of six economies, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and…
Pojmovnici
Reading Time: < 1 minuteKroz ovu seriju koristim mali skup skraćenica i simbola koji se ponavljaju kako bi diskusija bila čitljiva (i kako bih izbegao prepisivanje definicija svaki put kada pređemo sa intuicije na ocenu). Tabele ispod su kratki rečnici: ako vam se u kasnijim objavama simbol poput LGDP ili output gap-a (ili naziv…
Glossaries
Reading Time: < 1 minuteThroughout this series of blog posts, I use a small set of recurring acronyms and symbols to keep the discussion readable (and to avoid rewriting definitions every time we move from intuition to estimation). The tables below are quick glossaries: if, in later posts, a symbol like LGDP or output…
Okun ide Balkanom: Rast, poslovi i nelagodni ples bivše Jugoslavije – Deo I
Reading Time: 10 minutes1. „Zakon” stiže u region koji retko voli proseke Okunov zakon se obično predstavlja kao uredna tvrdnja: kada proizvodnja raste, nezaposlenost teži da pada; kada proizvodnja pada, nezaposlenost raste. Studija tu tvrdnju tretira onako kako i zaslužuje: kao empirijsku pravilnost čija snaga i stabilnost zavise od ekonomske strukture, institucija i…
Okun goes Balkan: Growth, jobs and the former Yugoslavia’s uneasy dance – Part I
Reading Time: 11 minutes1. A “law” arrives in a region that rarely does averages Okun’s Law is usually introduced as a tidy proposition: when output grows, unemployment tends to fall; when output contracts, joblessness rises. The report treats that proposition for what it is, an empirical regularity whose strength and stability depend on…
Okunov zakon, korak po korak: Ponovljiva mapa puta
Reading Time: 10 minutes1. Kako testirati „zakon“ koji stalno menja mišljenje Ovo je drugi nastavak u kratkom serijalu o odnosu nezaposlenosti i ekonomskog rasta, Okunovom zakonu. Prva objava je uvela ideju i njene dve glavne specifikacije; ova je „metodološki objava“ koja korak po korak pokazuje kako zapravo pokušavamo da proverimo taj odnos u…
Okun’s Law, step by step: A replicable roadmap
Reading Time: 11 minutes1. How to test a “Law” that keeps changing its mind This is the second instalment in a short series on the relationship between unemployment and economic growth, Okun’s Law. The first post introduced the idea and its two main specifications; this one is the “methodology post” that shows, step…
Okunov zakon: Pravilo koje radi, dok ne prestane
Reading Time: 14 minutesEkonomisti vole zakone. Stvarnost voli izuzetke. Okunov zakon sedi nezgodno između: dovoljno je slavan da zasluži veliko početno slovo, dovoljno je skroman da dolazi sa prećutnim sleganjem ramenima. On povezuje tržište rada sa poslovnim ciklusom tako što, u suštini, kaže da kada proizvodnja razočara, nezaposlenost obično raste; kada proizvodnja ubrza,…
Okun’s Law: The rule that works, until it doesn’t
Reading Time: 14 minutesEconomists love laws. Reality loves exceptions. Okun’s Law sits awkwardly in between: famous enough to earn a capital letter, modest enough to come with an implied shrug. It links the labour market to the business cycle by stating, in essence, that when output disappoints, unemployment tends to rise; when output…