Reading Time: 9 minutesGrafikoni nagoveštavaju odnos, pa onda tiho počnu da se raspravljaju oko vremenskog usklađivanja i jačine. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ovde počinjemo kao što počinju većina čitalaca (i mnogi kreatori politike): od slika i od toga šta…
Zagreb’s Okun riddle: When growth returns but jobs don’t always follow – Part I
Reading Time: 10 minutesThe charts hint at a relationship, then quietly argue about timing and strength. The methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. Here we begin as most readers (and many policymakers) do: with the pictures, and…
Okunova fatamorgana Srbije: Kad rast i poslovi odbijaju da marširaju u koraku – Deo III
Reading Time: 6 minutesDokazi nisu nihilistički, ali jesu uslovni, a politika mora da živi s tim. 1. Šta dokazi za Srbiju kažu o Okunovom zakonu, i šta odbijaju da kažu Kada spojite tri nastavka, priča za Srbiju postaje jasnija, i manje utešna. Grafikoni iz Dela I pokazuju ekonomiju u kojoj proizvodnja i nezaposlenost…
Serbia’s Okun mirage: When growth and jobs refuse to march in step – Part III
Reading Time: 7 minutesThe evidence is not nihilistic, but it is conditional, and policy has to live with that. 1. What Serbia’s evidence says about Okun, and what it refuses to say Put the three instalments together and the Serbia story becomes clearer, and less comforting. The charts in Part I show an…
Okunov zakon, balkansko izdanje: Metodološki vodič za Srbiju (bez bola) – Deo II
Reading Time: 5 minutesOd „da li su ovi podaci uopšte upotrebljivi?” do „da li rast vodi poslove?”, korak po korak. 1. Od grafika ka proverama: Kad intuicija prestaje da bude dovoljna Grafički uvid je koristan prvi prolaz, ali može biti i zamka: novija ekonomska istorija Srbije puna je šokova i diskontinuiteta, a to…
Okun’s Law, Balkan edition: A methodology guide for Serbia (without the pain) – Part II
Reading Time: 7 minutesFrom “is this data even usable?” to “does growth lead jobs?”, one careful step at a time. 1. From charts to checks: when intuition stops being enough Graphical inspection is a useful first pass, but it can also be a trap: Serbia’s recent economic history is full of shocks and…
Duhovi Jugoslavije na tržištu rada: Okunova kriva Srbije koja se „istrgla iz ruku” – Deo I
Reading Time: 8 minutesPre testova, grafikoni već pričaju priču, samo ne urednu. Puna ekonometrska metodologija iza ove vežbe za Srbiju objašnjena je u posebnoj blog objavi. Ova epizoda namerno ostaje vizuelna i intuitivna: šta podaci izgledaju da govore pre nego što ih nateramo da polože formalne statističke ispite. 1. Zašto Srbija tera Okunov…
Ghosts of Yugoslavia in the labour market: Serbia’s Okun curve on the loose – Part I
Reading Time: 8 minutesBefore the tests, the charts already tell a story, just not a tidy one. The full econometric methodology behind this Serbia exercise was explained in a separate blog post. This instalment stays deliberately visual and intuitive: what the data seem to say before we ask them to pass any formal…
Šest ekonomija, jedan „zakon”, i region koji stalno ruši uobičajenu skalu – Deo III
Reading Time: 8 minutes1. Jedan region, mnoge tranzicije i tvrdoglava makro veza U studiji, privlačnost Okunovog zakona je varljivo jednostavna: kada proizvodnja raste snažno, nezaposlenost bi trebalo, u proseku, da se spušta; kada proizvodnja posustane, nezaposlenost teži da raste. Arthur Okun ga je formulisao kao empirijsku opservaciju, ne kao teoremu, ali kreatori politike…
Six economies, one “law”, and a region that keeps breaking the ruler – Part III
Reading Time: 8 minutes1. One region, many transitions, and a stubborn macro relationship In the study’s telling, the appeal of Okun’s Law is disarmingly simple: when output is rising briskly, unemployment should, on average, edge down; when output falters, joblessness tends to rise. Arthur Okun framed it as an empirical observation rather than…