Stylized Facts

Reading Time: 7 minutesŠta dokazi znače za stabilizaciju, politiku tržišta rada i ekonomsku otpornost, kada se koeficijent ponaša kako treba. 1. Jedna zemlja, jedan „zakon”, manje izgovora Na prvi pogled, Slovenija deluje kao ekonomija u kojoj bi Okunov zakon trebalo da bude neobično lako proverljiv. Studija naginje toj intuiciji: mala otvorena ekonomija koja…

Reading Time: 7 minutes1. One country, one “law,” fewer excuses Taken at face value, Slovenia looks like an economy where Okun’s Law should be unusually easy to verify. The report leans into that intuition: a small open economy that moved from socialism to a market framework, experienced EU and euro adoption, and endured…

Reading Time: 8 minutesOd „da li je ova serija uopšte stabilna?” do „ko vodi koga?” 1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto je „radni tok / pipeline” bitan Posle grafikona, studija radi nešto osvežavajuće ne romantično: insistira na radnom toku. To nije akademsko sitničarenje; to je način da se mali godišnji skup podataka spreči…

Reading Time: 8 minutes1. From pictures to proof: Why the pipeline matters After the charts, the report does something refreshingly unromantic: it insists on a workflow. That is not academic fussiness; it is a way to stop a small annual dataset from telling tall tales. With annual data for Slovenia (1990–2024), the temptation…

Reading Time: 8 minutesGrafikoni deluju umirujuće, dok ne primetite gde se ne uklapaju. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ovde polazimo od tamo odakle kreatori politike (i većina čitalaca) ionako kreću: od slika i onoga što sugerišu pre nego što podatke…

Reading Time: 8 minutesThe methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. Here we start where policymakers (and most readers) start anyway: with the pictures, and what they suggest before the data are put on a formal econometric witness…

Reading Time: 6 minutesZakon kretanja, ako poštujete lomove, neiskorišćenost kapaciteta i granice predviđanja. 1. Hrvatska Okunova priča u jednoj rečenici, i ograde skrivene u njoj Zaključak studije je varljivo jednostavan: u hrvatskim godišnjim podacima, kretanja proizvodnje su važna za nezaposlenost, a smer uticaja ide jasnije od BDP-a ka tržištu rada nego obrnuto, posebno…

Reading Time: 7 minutesA law of motion, if you respect breaks, slack, and the limits of prediction. 1. Croatia’s Okun story in one sentence, and the caveats hidden inside it The report’s bottom line is deceptively simple: in Croatia’s annual data, output movements matter for unemployment, and the direction of influence runs more…

Reading Time: 8 minutesStacionarnost, lomovi, kointegracija, dinamika, uzročnost, koraci koji sprečavaju da sami sebe prevarite. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto testovi dolaze sledeći Kada grafikoni obave svoj posao, označe očigledna zajednička kretanja, dramatične veštačke promenljive (posebno 2009. i 2020.) i sumnju da je „jedan nagib” previše jednostavno, studija prelazi na deo koji…

Reading Time: 9 minutesStationarity, breaks, cointegration, dynamics, causality, the steps that stop you from fooling yourself. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the tests come next Once the charts have done their job, flagging the obvious co-movements, the dramatic outliers (especially 2009 and 2020), and the suspicion that “one slope” may be too…