Reading Time: 9 minutesGrafikoni nagoveštavaju vezu, a onda se tiho posvađaju oko podešavanja vremena i jačine. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto testiramo stacionarnost, prekide, kointegraciju, dinamiku i kauzalnost tim redom, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ova hrvatska kvartalna serija ima tri dela: Deo I čita slike, Deo II prolazi kroz formalne rezultate,…
Zagreb’s Okun riddle: When growth returns but jobs don’t always follow – Part I
Reading Time: 10 minutesThe charts hint at a relationship, then quietly argue about timing and strength. The methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, breaks, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. This Croatia quarterly series comes in three parts: Part I reads the pictures,…
Okun, „proizveden u Ljubljani”: Ekonomski-političko čitanje veze rasta i poslova u Sloveniji – Deo III
Reading Time: 7 minutesŠta dokazi znače za stabilizaciju, politiku tržišta rada i ekonomsku otpornost, kada se koeficijent ponaša kako treba. 1. Jedna zemlja, jedan „zakon”, manje izgovora Na prvi pogled, Slovenija deluje kao ekonomija u kojoj bi Okunov zakon trebalo da bude neobično lako proverljiv. Studija naginje toj intuiciji: mala otvorena ekonomija koja…
Okun, made in Ljubljana: A policy reading of Slovenia’s growth–jobs link – Part III
Reading Time: 7 minutes1. One country, one “law,” fewer excuses Taken at face value, Slovenia looks like an economy where Okun’s Law should be unusually easy to verify. The report leans into that intuition: a small open economy that moved from socialism to a market framework, experienced EU and euro adoption, and endured…
Okun u Alpima: Slovenački podaci izvode odnos proizvodnje i nezaposlenosti na sud – Deo II
Reading Time: 8 minutesOd „da li je ova serija uopšte stabilna?” do „ko vodi koga?” 1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto je „radni tok / pipeline” bitan Posle grafikona, studija radi nešto osvežavajuće ne romantično: insistira na radnom toku. To nije akademsko sitničarenje; to je način da se mali godišnji skup podataka spreči…
Okun in the Alps: Slovenia’s data put the relationship on trial – Part II
Reading Time: 8 minutes1. From pictures to proof: Why the pipeline matters After the charts, the report does something refreshingly unromantic: it insists on a workflow. That is not academic fussiness; it is a way to stop a small annual dataset from telling tall tales. With annual data for Slovenia (1990–2024), the temptation…
Ljubljanski Okunov šapat: Kad se rast i poslovi skoro slože
Reading Time: 8 minutesGrafikoni deluju umirujuće, dok ne primetite gde se ne uklapaju. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ovde polazimo od tamo odakle kreatori politike (i većina čitalaca) ionako kreću: od slika i onoga što sugerišu pre nego što podatke…
Ljubljana’s Okun whisper: When growth and jobs almost agree – Part I
Reading Time: 8 minutesThe methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. Here we start where policymakers (and most readers) start anyway: with the pictures, and what they suggest before the data are put on a formal econometric witness…
Okun u Zagrebu: Šta hrvatski dokazi znače za politiku danas – Deo III
Reading Time: 6 minutesZakon kretanja, ako poštujete lomove, neiskorišćenost kapaciteta i granice predviđanja. 1. Hrvatska Okunova priča u jednoj rečenici, i ograde skrivene u njoj Zaključak studije je varljivo jednostavan: u hrvatskim godišnjim podacima, kretanja proizvodnje su važna za nezaposlenost, a smer uticaja ide jasnije od BDP-a ka tržištu rada nego obrnuto, posebno…
Okun in Zagreb: What Croatia’s evidence means for policy now – Part III
Reading Time: 7 minutesA law of motion, if you respect breaks, slack, and the limits of prediction. 1. Croatia’s Okun story in one sentence, and the caveats hidden inside it The report’s bottom line is deceptively simple: in Croatia’s annual data, output movements matter for unemployment, and the direction of influence runs more…