Reading Time: 10 minutesKad se županije kreću zajedno, vaša ekonometrija to mora priznati. Kada to ne čine, ni vaši politički slogani ne bi trebalo. 1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto panel testovi dolaze sledeći Deo I je pustio županijske grafikone da progovore prvi. Učinili su ono što dobri grafikoni rade: nagovestili Okunov odnos,…
Croatia’s county panel cross-examines Okun: The “Law” survives, but only after you respect the crowd – Part II
Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen counties move together, your econometrics must admit it. When they don’t, your policy slogans shouldn’t either. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the panel tests come next Part I let the county charts speak first. They did what good charts usually do: they hinted at an Okun relationship, especially…
Zagreb u centru, županije u ogledalu: Hrvatski Okunov zakon izgleda drugačije izbliza – Deo I
Reading Time: 10 minutesKad zumirate od glavnog grada ka periferiji, „zakon“ se pretvara u mozaik kašnjenja, otpornosti i neiskorišćenosti kapaciteta. Metodološki radni tok iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, međuzavisnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjen je u posebnom blog postu. Ova serija o županijama ide u tri dela: Deo I čita slike,…
Zagreb at the centre, counties in the mirror: Croatia’s Okun Law looks different up close – Part I
Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen you zoom in from the capital to the periphery, the “law” turns into a patchwork of lags, resilience, and slack. The methodology pipeline behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, dependence, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. This counties series runs…
Hrvatska Okunova presuda, posle evra: Zakon koji radi, ali uz fusnote – Deo III
Reading Time: 6 minutesKvartalni podaci potvrđuju kanal. Ali insistiraju na prekidima, kašnjenjima i skromnosti. 1. Glavni zaključak: Hrvatska ima Okunovu vezu, ali nema jedan „Okunov broj“ Ako ste došli po jedan oštar koeficijent koji pretvara BDP u poslove kao automat, ubaciš rast, dobiješ zaposlenost, bićete razočarani. Ako ste došli po nešto realnije, dokaz…
Croatia’s Okun verdict, post-euro: A law that works, with footnotes – Part III
Reading Time: 8 minutesQuarterly data confirm the channel. They also insist on breaks, lags, and humility. 1. The big takeaway: Croatia has an Okun relationship, but not a single “Okun number” If you came here hoping for one crisp coefficient that turns GDP into jobs like a vending machine, insert growth, receive employment,…
Hrvatski Okunov zakon ide na sud – Deo II
Reading Time: 10 minutesJedinični koreni, prekidi, kointegracija, asimetrija i uzročnost: Hrvatski kvartalni podaci daju iskaz, ne priznanje. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto kontrolna lista ima smisla Deo I je pustio grafikone da urade ono što najbolje rade: pokažu zajedničko kretanje, istaknu nezgodna kašnjenja i podsete nas da nekoliko dramatičnih kvartala može da…
Croatia’s Okun Law goes to court – Part II
Reading Time: 13 minutesUnit roots, breaks, cointegration, asymmetry and causality, Croatia’s quarterly data give testimony, not a confession. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the checklist matters Part I let the charts do what charts do best: reveal co-movement, highlight awkward lags, and remind us that a few dramatic quarters can bend a…
Zagrebačka Okunova zagonetka: Kada se rast vrati, a poslovi ne prate uvek – Deo I
Reading Time: 9 minutesGrafikoni nagoveštavaju vezu, a onda se tiho posvađaju oko podešavanja vremena i jačine. Metodologija iza ove vežbe, zašto testiramo stacionarnost, prekide, kointegraciju, dinamiku i kauzalnost tim redom, objašnjena je u posebnom blog postu. Ova hrvatska kvartalna serija ima tri dela: Deo I čita slike, Deo II prolazi kroz formalne rezultate,…
Zagreb’s Okun riddle: When growth returns but jobs don’t always follow – Part I
Reading Time: 10 minutesThe charts hint at a relationship, then quietly argue about timing and strength. The methodology behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, breaks, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. This Croatia quarterly series comes in three parts: Part I reads the pictures,…