Stylized Facts

Reading Time: 8 minutesHrvatska u evro eri je ujedinjena u novcu, i dalje podeljena u tome kako radna mesta reaguju na rast. 1. Jedan glavni grad, mnogo tržišta rada: Šta kažu županijski dokazi Iz daljine, Okunov zakon je umirujuća pravilnost: kad ekonomija „radi vruće“, nezaposlenost se „hladi“; kad proizvodnja padne, nezaposlenost raste. Izbliza,…

Reading Time: 9 minutesEuro-era Croatia is united in money, and still divided in how jobs respond to growth. 1. One capital, many labour markets: What the county evidence says Zoomed out, Okun’s Law is a comforting regularity: when the economy runs hot, unemployment cools; when output contracts, joblessness climbs. Zoomed in to Croatia’s…

Reading Time: 10 minutesKad se županije kreću zajedno, vaša ekonometrija to mora priznati. Kada to ne čine, ni vaši politički slogani ne bi trebalo. 1. Od slika ka dokazima: Zašto panel testovi dolaze sledeći Deo I je pustio županijske grafikone da progovore prvi. Učinili su ono što dobri grafikoni rade: nagovestili Okunov odnos,…

Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen counties move together, your econometrics must admit it. When they don’t, your policy slogans shouldn’t either. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the panel tests come next Part I let the county charts speak first. They did what good charts usually do: they hinted at an Okun relationship, especially…

Reading Time: 10 minutesKad zumirate od glavnog grada ka periferiji, „zakon“ se pretvara u mozaik kašnjenja, otpornosti i neiskorišćenosti kapaciteta. Metodološki radni tok iza ove vežbe, zašto redom testiramo stacionarnost, međuzavisnost, kointegraciju, dinamiku i uzročnost, objašnjen je u posebnom blog postu. Ova serija o županijama ide u tri dela: Deo I čita slike,…

Reading Time: 11 minutesWhen you zoom in from the capital to the periphery, the “law” turns into a patchwork of lags, resilience, and slack. The methodology pipeline behind this exercise, why we test stationarity, dependence, cointegration, dynamics and causality in that order, was explained in a separate blog post. This counties series runs…

Reading Time: 6 minutesKvartalni podaci potvrđuju kanal. Ali insistiraju na prekidima, kašnjenjima i skromnosti. 1. Glavni zaključak: Hrvatska ima Okunovu vezu, ali nema jedan „Okunov broj“ Ako ste došli po jedan oštar koeficijent koji pretvara BDP u poslove kao automat, ubaciš rast, dobiješ zaposlenost, bićete razočarani. Ako ste došli po nešto realnije, dokaz…

Reading Time: 8 minutesQuarterly data confirm the channel. They also insist on breaks, lags, and humility. 1. The big takeaway: Croatia has an Okun relationship, but not a single “Okun number” If you came here hoping for one crisp coefficient that turns GDP into jobs like a vending machine, insert growth, receive employment,…

Reading Time: 10 minutesJedinični koreni, prekidi, kointegracija, asimetrija i uzročnost: Hrvatski kvartalni podaci daju iskaz, ne priznanje. 1. Od slika do dokaza: Zašto kontrolna lista ima smisla Deo I je pustio grafikone da urade ono što najbolje rade: pokažu zajedničko kretanje, istaknu nezgodna kašnjenja i podsete nas da nekoliko dramatičnih kvartala može da…

Reading Time: 13 minutesUnit roots, breaks, cointegration, asymmetry and causality, Croatia’s quarterly data give testimony, not a confession. 1. From pictures to proof: Why the checklist matters Part I let the charts do what charts do best: reveal co-movement, highlight awkward lags, and remind us that a few dramatic quarters can bend a…