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Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. Od posleratnog oporavka do zrelije ekspanzije BDP Bosne i Hercegovine kao kvartalna vremenska serija Bruto domaći proizvod je najšira pojedinačna mera makroekonomske aktivnosti. On sažima vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje pregled dugoročnog oporavka, ekspanzije, recesije i ciklične nestabilnosti. U ovom blog postu…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. From Post-War Recovery to Mature Expansion Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product is the broadest single measure of macroeconomic activity. It summarises the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore gives a compact view of long-run recovery, expansion,…

Reading Time: 5 minutesSinhronizacija ciklusa BDP-a Srbije sa ekonomijama bivše Jugoslavije 4.1 Sinhronizacija na grafikonima ciklusa Četvrti deo postavlja pitanje da li se ciklus BDP-a Srbije kreće zajedno sa ciklusima BDP-a Bosne i Hercegovine, Hrvatske, Crne Gore, Severne Makedonije i Slovenije. Sinhronizacija je važna zato što ekonomije koje dele ciklične faze mogu deliti…

Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Serbia’s GDP Cycle with Other Former Yugoslav Economies 4.1 Synchronisation in the cycle graphs Part 4 asks whether Serbia’s GDP cycle moves together with the GDP cycles of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Slovenia. Synchronisation matters because economies that share cyclical phases may also share…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Srbije 3.1 Zašto je datiranje ciklusa važno Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja nivoa BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. Ekonomija može rasti u nivou, a ipak biti ispod trenda; isto tako može biti iznad trenda čak i kada…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Serbia’s Business Cycle 3.1 Why cycle dating matters Part 3 moves from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying the business cycle. The business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. An economy can still be growing in level terms while being below its trend,…

Reading Time: 3 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje 2.1 Od strukture vremenske serije ka prognozi Prvi deo je pokazao da BDP Srbije ima snažan trend, postojanost i sezonalnost. Drugi deo postavlja pitanje da li se ta struktura može dovoljno dobro obuhvatiti da bi se dobile korisne kratkoročne prognoze. Model koji se ovde koristi…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA Estimation and Short-Term Forecasting 2.1 From time-series structure to forecasting Part 1 showed that Serbia’s GDP has strong trend, persistence and seasonality. Part 2 asks whether this structure can be captured well enough to produce useful short-term forecasts. The forecasting model used here is an ARIMA model estimated on…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. BDP Srbije kao kvartalna vremenska serija 1.1 Uvod Bruto domaći proizvod je najširi pojedinačni pokazatelj makroekonomske aktivnosti. On meri vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje sažet prikaz ekspanzija, recesija, oporavaka i dugoročnih promena u proizvodnom kapacitetu. U ovoj analizi BDP Srbije posmatra se…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. Serbia’s GDP as a Quarterly Time Series 1.1 Introduction Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of macroeconomic activity. It measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore provides a compact summary of expansions, recessions, recoveries and longer-term changes in productive capacity….