Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Severne Makedonije Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa Severne Makedonije. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. To nije isto što i jednostavno pitanje da li je BDP porastao ili pao u određenom kvartalu. Ekonomija može rasti, a ipak biti…
Part 3. When Was North Macedonia Above or Below Trend?
Reading Time: 4 minutesDating North Macedonia’s business cycle Part 3 moves from forecasting GDP to identifying North Macedonia’s business cycle. The business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. This is not the same as simply asking whether GDP increased or decreased in a given quarter. An economy can…
Deo 2. Može li se BDP Severne Makedonije prognozirati iz sopstvene prošlosti?
Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje Drugi deo prelazi sa opisa na prognoziranje. Pošto je prvi deo pokazao da je BDP Severne Makedonije postojan, sezonski i nestacionaran u nivou, prirodno pitanje je da li statistički model može iskoristiti tu strukturu za prognozu bliske budućnosti. ARIMA model koji se ovde koristi ocenjen…
Part 2. Can North Macedonia’s GDP Be Forecast from Its Own Past?
Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 moves from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that North Macedonia’s GDP is persistent, seasonal and non-stationary in levels, the natural question is whether a statistical model can use that structure to forecast the near future. The ARIMA model used here is…
BDP Severne Makedonije u dugom ciklusu: postojanost, oporavak i neujednačena regionalna sinhronizacija, 2000–2026
Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. Postojana ekonomija sa umerenom sezonalnošću BDP Severne Makedonije kao kvartalna vremenska serija Bruto domaći proizvod je najširi pojedinačni pokazatelj makroekonomske aktivnosti. On meri vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje sažet prikaz dugoročne ekspanzije, recesije, oporavka i ciklične nestabilnosti. U ovom blog postu BDP…
North Macedonia’s GDP in the Long Cycle: Persistence, Recovery and Uneven Regional Synchronisation, 2000–2026
Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. A Persistent Economy with Moderate Seasonality North Macedonia’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of macroeconomic activity. It measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore provides a compact summary of long-run expansion, recession, recovery…
Deo 4. Da li se Crna Gora kreće zajedno sa regionom?
Reading Time: 6 minutesSinhronizacija ciklusa BDP-a Crne Gore sa drugim ekonomijama bivše Jugoslavije Četvrti deo poredi ciklus BDP-a Crne Gore sa ciklusima Bosne i Hercegovine, Hrvatske, Severne Makedonije, Srbije i Slovenije. Sinhronizacija je važna zato što ekonomije koje se kreću zajedno mogu deliti trgovinsku izloženost, turističke šokove, veze na tržištu rada, finansijske kanale,…
Part 4. Does Montenegro Move with the Region?
Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Montenegro’s GDP cycle with other former Yugoslav economies Part 4 compares Montenegro’s GDP cycle with the cycles of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Synchronisation matters because economies that move together may share trade exposure, tourism shocks, labour-market links, financial channels, external demand conditions or…
Deo 3. Kada je Crna Gora bila iznad, a kada ispod trenda?
Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Crne Gore Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa Crne Gore. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. To nije isto što i pitanje da li je BDP porastao ili pao u jednom kvartalu. Ekonomija može rasti, a ipak biti ispod…
Part 3. When Was Montenegro Above or Below Trend?
Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Montenegro’s business cycle Part 3 moves from forecasting GDP to identifying Montenegro’s business cycle. A business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. This is not the same as asking whether GDP rose or fell in a single quarter. An economy can still grow while…