Stylized Facts

Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Crne Gore Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa Crne Gore. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. To nije isto što i pitanje da li je BDP porastao ili pao u jednom kvartalu. Ekonomija može rasti, a ipak biti ispod…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Montenegro’s business cycle Part 3 moves from forecasting GDP to identifying Montenegro’s business cycle. A business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. This is not the same as asking whether GDP rose or fell in a single quarter. An economy can still grow while…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje Drugi deo prelazi sa opisa na prognoziranje. Pošto je prvi deo pokazao da je BDP Crne Gore izrazito sezonski i nestacionaran u nivou, pitanje je da li ARIMA model može iskoristiti tu strukturu za korisnu kratkoročnu prognozu. Model se ocenjuje na transformisanoj seriji i poredi…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 turns from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that Montenegro’s GDP is highly seasonal and non-stationary in levels, the question is whether an ARIMA model can use this structure to produce a useful short-term forecast. The model is estimated on the transformed…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDeo 1. Mala ekonomija sa snažnim sezonskim pulsom BDP Crne Gore kao kvartalna vremenska serija Bruto domaći proizvod je najšira pojedinačna mera makroekonomske aktivnosti. On sažima vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje pregled ekspanzije, kontrakcije, oporavka i dugoročnih promena proizvodnog kapaciteta. U ovom blog postu…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. A Small Economy with a Large Seasonal Pulse Montenegro’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product is the broadest single measure of macroeconomic activity. It summarises the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore provides a compact view of expansion, contraction, recovery…

Reading Time: 5 minutesSinhronizacija ciklusa BDP-a Hrvatske sa drugim ekonomijama bivše Jugoslavije Četvrti deo poredi ciklus BDP-a Hrvatske sa ciklusima Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore, Severne Makedonije, Srbije i Slovenije. Sinhronizacija je važna zato što ekonomije koje se kreću zajedno mogu deliti trgovinsku izloženost, veze na tržištu rada, turističke šokove, uslove tražnje iz…

Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Croatia’s GDP cycle with other former Yugoslav economies Part 4 compares Croatia’s GDP cycle with the cycles of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Synchronisation matters because economies that move together may share trade exposure, labour-market links, tourism shocks, EU demand conditions, financial channels or…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Hrvatske Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja nivoa BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa Hrvatske. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. To nije isto što i pitanje da li BDP raste ili pada u jednom kvartalu. Ekonomija može rasti, a ipak ostati ispod trenda; isto…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Croatia’s business cycle Part 3 shifts from forecasting the GDP level to identifying Croatia’s business cycle. A business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. This is not the same as asking whether GDP rises or falls in a single quarter. An economy may grow…