Stylized Facts

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje Drugi deo prelazi sa opisa na prognoziranje. Pošto je prvi deo pokazao da je BDP Hrvatske postojan, sezonski i nestacionaran u nivou, prirodno pitanje je da li statistički model može iskoristiti tu strukturu za prognozu bliske budućnosti. Model koji se ovde koristi jeste ARIMA model…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 moves from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that Croatia’s GDP is persistent, seasonal and non-stationary in levels, the natural next question is whether a statistical model can use that structure to forecast the near future. The model used here is an…

Reading Time: 5 minutesDeo 1. Od tranzicionog rasta do novog maksimuma BDP Hrvatske kao kvartalna vremenska serija Bruto domaći proizvod je najširi pojedinačni pokazatelj makroekonomske aktivnosti. On meri vrednost dobara i usluga proizvedenih u jednoj ekonomiji i zato daje sažet prikaz dugoročnog rasta, recesije, oporavka i ciklične nestabilnosti. U ovom blog postu BDP…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. From Transition Growth to a New High Croatia’s GDP as a quarterly time series Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of macroeconomic activity. It measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy and therefore gives a compact summary of long-run growth, recession, recovery…

Reading Time: 5 minutesSinhronizacija ciklusa BDP-a Bosne i Hercegovine sa drugim ekonomijama bivše Jugoslavije Četvrti deo poredi ciklus BDP-a Bosne i Hercegovine sa ciklusima Hrvatske, Crne Gore, Severne Makedonije, Srbije i Slovenije. Sinhronizacija je važna zato što ekonomije koje se kreću zajedno mogu deliti trgovinsku izloženost, veze na tržištu rada, finansijske kanale, doznake,…

Reading Time: 5 minutesSynchronisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP cycle with other former Yugoslav economies Part 4 compares Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP cycle with the cycles of Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Synchronisation matters because economies that move together may share trade exposure, labour-market links, financial channels, remittance flows, tourism shocks,…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDatiranje poslovnog ciklusa Bosne i Hercegovine Treći deo prelazi sa prognoziranja nivoa BDP-a na identifikaciju poslovnog ciklusa. Poslovni ciklus predstavlja kretanje ekonomske aktivnosti oko njenog dugoročnog trenda. To se razlikuje od jednostavnog pitanja da li je BDP porastao ili pao u određenom kvartalu. Ekonomija može rasti, a ipak biti ispod…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Bosnia and Herzegovina’s business cycle Part 3 shifts from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying the business cycle. The business cycle is the movement of economic activity around its longer-term trend. This is different from simply asking whether GDP grew or fell in a given quarter. An economy…

Reading Time: 3 minutesARIMA model i kratkoročno prognoziranje Drugi deo prelazi sa opisa na prognoziranje. Pošto je prvi deo pokazao da je serija BDP-a postojana, sezonska i nestacionarna u nivou, prirodno pitanje je da li statistički model može iskoristiti tu strukturu za kratkoročnu prognozu. ARIMA model koji se ovde koristi ocenjen je na…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA estimation and short-term forecasting Part 2 moves from description to forecasting. Since Part 1 showed that the GDP series is persistent, seasonal and non-stationary in levels, the natural next question is whether a statistical model can use that structure to forecast the near future. The ARIMA model used here…