Okunov zakon: Pravilo koje radi, dok ne prestane
Reading Time: 14 minutesEkonomisti vole zakone. Stvarnost voli izuzetke. Okunov zakon sedi nezgodno između: dovoljno je slavan da zasluži veliko početno slovo, dovoljno…
Okun’s Law: The rule that works, until it doesn’t
Reading Time: 14 minutesEconomists love laws. Reality loves exceptions. Okun’s Law sits awkwardly in between: famous enough to earn a capital letter, modest…
Construction in Serbia, 2000Q1–2024Q4: Part 2 — Dependence, forecasting, and synchronization with GDP
Reading Time: 9 minutes1. Part 2 introduction Part 1 established the structural anatomy of the series: a strong trend plus durable seasonality. Part…
Construction in Serbia, 2000Q1–2024Q4: The trend, the seasons, and what the cycle is telling us
Reading Time: 7 minutesThis post analyses in two parts Serbia’s quarterly Construction index (base 2021 = 100) over 2000Q1–2024Q4. The tone is deliberately…
Real GDP in Slovenia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 13 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product (real GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy,…
Real GDP in Serbia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks in a Catch-Up Economy
Reading Time: 15 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product (real GDP) is the broadest summary measure of economic activity. It captures the value…
Real GDP in North Macedonia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 15 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product (real GDP) is the broadest single measure of economic activity. It summarises how much…
Real GDP in Montenegro, 2006Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 12 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product is the standard yardstick for measuring the scale of economic activity. In the case…
Real GDP in Croatia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 13 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product is the central summary indicator of economic activity. Measured here as chain-linked volumes with…
Real GDP in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2000Q1–2025Q1: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 10 minutesA seasonal view of a small open economy 1. Introduction Real gross domestic product is the basic yardstick economists use…