Reading Time: 6 minutesSynchronisation of Serbia’s GDP Cycle with Other Former Yugoslav Economies 4.1 Synchronisation in the cycle graphs Part 4 asks whether…

Reading Time: 4 minutesDating Serbia’s Business Cycle 3.1 Why cycle dating matters Part 3 moves from forecasting the level of GDP to identifying…

Reading Time: 4 minutesARIMA Estimation and Short-Term Forecasting 2.1 From time-series structure to forecasting Part 1 showed that Serbia’s GDP has strong trend,…

Reading Time: 5 minutesPart 1. Serbia’s GDP as a Quarterly Time Series 1.1 Introduction Gross domestic product is the broadest single indicator of…

Reading Time: 6 minutesDokazi nisu nihilistički, ali jesu uslovni, a politika mora da živi s tim. 1. Šta dokazi za Srbiju kažu o…

Reading Time: 7 minutesThe evidence is not nihilistic, but it is conditional, and policy has to live with that. 1. What Serbia’s evidence…

Reading Time: 5 minutesOd „da li su ovi podaci uopšte upotrebljivi?” do „da li rast vodi poslove?”, korak po korak. 1. Od grafika…

Reading Time: 7 minutesFrom “is this data even usable?” to “does growth lead jobs?”, one careful step at a time. 1. From charts…

Reading Time: 8 minutesPre testova, grafikoni već pričaju priču, samo ne urednu. Puna ekonometrska metodologija iza ove vežbe za Srbiju objašnjena je u…

Reading Time: 8 minutesBefore the tests, the charts already tell a story, just not a tidy one. The full econometric methodology behind this…