Okunov zakon: Pravilo koje radi, dok ne prestane
Reading Time: 14 minutesEkonomisti vole zakone. Stvarnost voli izuzetke. Okunov zakon sedi nezgodno između: dovoljno je slavan da zasluži veliko početno slovo, dovoljno…
Okun’s Law: The rule that works, until it doesn’t
Reading Time: 14 minutesEconomists love laws. Reality loves exceptions. Okun’s Law sits awkwardly in between: famous enough to earn a capital letter, modest…
Construction in Serbia, 2000Q1–2024Q4: Part 2 — Dependence, forecasting, and synchronization with GDP
Reading Time: 9 minutes1. Part 2 introduction Part 1 established the structural anatomy of the series: a strong trend plus durable seasonality. Part…
Construction in Serbia, 2000Q1–2024Q4: The trend, the seasons, and what the cycle is telling us
Reading Time: 7 minutesThis post analyses in two parts Serbia’s quarterly Construction index (base 2021 = 100) over 2000Q1–2024Q4. The tone is deliberately…
The digital mirage: Why “more tech” still isn’t showing up as productivity for Croatian manufacturers
Reading Time: 5 minutesDigitalisation is routinely marketed as the straightest line from the shop floor to higher productivity. Install the software, connect the…
Retail trade and catering in Serbia: What the seasonal anatomy reveals
Reading Time: 7 minutesData context and figures. This note interprets a set of monthly charts for Serbia’s retail trade (constant prices) and catering…
Unit labour costs in Serbian industry: What the monthly data say (2008–2025)
Reading Time: 7 minutes1. Introduction Unit labour cost (ULC) is a compact measure of cost-pressures from wages relative to productivity. When ULC rises,…
Average wages in Serbia, 2005–2025: Trend, seasonality, and the post-inflation normalisation
Reading Time: 9 minutes1. Introduction Average wages are one of the cleanest windows into an economy’s living-standard dynamics. They condense firm-level conditions, labour-market…
Real GDP in Slovenia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks
Reading Time: 13 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product (real GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy,…
Real GDP in Serbia, 2000Q1–2025Q2: Trend, Seasonality and Shocks in a Catch-Up Economy
Reading Time: 15 minutes1. Introduction Real gross domestic product (real GDP) is the broadest summary measure of economic activity. It captures the value…