Stylized Facts

about former Yugoslav republics economies

Household Savings
Household savings Monetary Sector

Household savings in Serbia (1)

This is the first in a series of blog posts analysing and discussing Serbian monthly savings time series.

Aims

The aims of these blog posts are the following:

To describe main features of monthly savings time series

  • To model series using popular time series models
  • To forecast future savings time series values
  • To apply hierarchical time series models
  • To apply temporal hierarchical time series models
  • To compare forecasting performance of different time series models

Dataset

The dataset under examination comes from the National Bank of Serbia database (http://nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/80/monetarni_sektor/SBMS14.xls). It contains four monthly household savings with banks time series: dinar and FX-indexed savings and foreign currency savings, both in short- and long-terms. All series cover the same period: 2004M1 to 2019M2.

Dataset description

Dataset is available for download in two formats: csv and RData.

Column names in csv file are: Dinar_short, Dinar_long, Foreign_short and Foreign_long. Those familiar with R could download and use RData file. This RData file contains a few time series objects in different format (savings.ts, savings.zoo, sdom, sfor, sshort, and slong). For instance, object sdom contains two series with the following names: “Dinar short-term” and “Dinar long-term”, while object sshort contains two series with the following names: “Dinar short-term” and “Foreign short-term”.

In the next blog post line graphs for each monthly household savings time series will be presented and discussed.

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Zlatko Kovacic
Director of Wellington based My Statistical Consultant Ltd company. Retired Associate Professor in Statistics. Has a PhD in Statistics and over 35 years experience as a university professor, international researcher and government consultant.